Crises, change and Greece to 2026

ProjectGreece.

The History of Greece, from 1800 to today.

A series of twenty episodes that narrates the journey of modern Greece with sobriety, calmness, and documentation.

Twentieth episode.

Welcome to the final episode of the series "The History of Greece, from 1800 to today."

In the previous episode, we reached the end of 2015. The country had gone through two elections, a referendum, a bank holiday, and capital controls. Alexis Tsipras had been re-elected and was governing with the Independent Greeks, while the third financial assistance programme had begun. Prokopios Pavlopoulos was the President of the Republic. From here, we continue strictly from 1 January 2016.

In March 2016, the European Union and Turkey agreed on an emergency framework for arrivals on the Greek islands. It provides for the individual examination of asylum requests, the return of those who are not entitled to protection, and the resettlement of Syrians from Turkey. Flows have decreased, but thousands of people remain in island facilities for long periods. Implementation, reception conditions, and respect for the principle of non-refoulement have become a field of constant legal and political confrontation.

The migratory and refugee experience is not monolithic. It includes people seeking international protection, others moving for work, unaccompanied minors, island residents, and workers in services and organisations. Arrival figures are not figures of permanent settlement: some continue to third countries, others return, and others are recognised as refugees. For this reason, we do not conflate "arrivals," "asylum applications," and "population residing in Greece."

In the economy, the government has implemented agreed-upon fiscal and structural changes under the evaluations of European institutions, with the International Monetary Fund participating in technical monitoring. In 2017, the IMF approved a precautionary agreement in principle, which was not activated and did not disburse a new loan. Unemployment is receding from the extreme levels of the previous period, but wages, over-taxation, non-performing loans, and the exodus of young people abroad remain a burden on households. Aggregate recovery indicators do not mean that all social groups are recovering at the same rate.

On 17 June 2018, Foreign Ministers Nikos Kotzias and Nikola Dimitrov signed the agreement between Greece and the then Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia in the Prespa region. The new constitutional name is "Republic of North Macedonia." The agreement regulates the name, the use of the name, issues of language and citizenship, and paves the way for the neighbouring country's NATO accession. It sparked strong support and strong opposition in both societies.

On 23 July 2018, a wildfire in Eastern Attica trapped residents and holidaymakers, mainly in Mati. The final official death toll reached 104. Wind speed, unorganised construction, escape routes, early warning, and the coordination of services were investigated judicially and administratively. We do not attribute a single cause to a disaster where natural conditions, urban planning choices, and state readiness interacted.

On 20 August 2018, the third programme of the European Stability Mechanism concluded. This means the end of the period of new disbursements from this specific programme, not the repayment of public debt nor the end of all European monitoring. Greece transitioned to post-programme monitoring under an enhanced surveillance status. The distinction is critical: "exit from the programme," "end of enhanced surveillance," and "repayment of loans" are three different events.

The Prespa Agreement did not eliminate every difference nor did it automatically ensure European Union membership. In Greece, the disagreement rearranged alliances: in January 2019, the Independent Greeks withdrew from the government, but Tsipras received a vote of confidence and Parliament ratified the agreement. After the completion of the required procedures in both countries, the agreement entered into force on 12 February 2019.

On 7 July 2019, New Democracy won the elections, and on 8 July, Kyriakos Mitsotakis succeeded Alexis Tsipras as Prime Minister. The government held an absolute majority and promoted reforms, investments, tax cuts, and a digital state. On 1 September, capital controls were fully lifted. The lifting closed an institutional cycle from 2015, but it did not erase the economic and social consequences of the ten-year crisis.

On 26 February 2020, the first case of COVID-19 in Greece was confirmed. The phrasing refers to the first laboratory-confirmed incident, not necessarily the first infection in the country.

In the immediately following days, at the end of February and the beginning of March, thousands of people gathered on the Turkish side of the Evros river when Ankara declared that it would no longer prevent their movement toward Europe. Greece closed the crossings, reinforced the police and military, and suspended the submission of new asylum applications for one month. The government described organised pressure at the borders, while human rights organisations questioned the compatibility of certain measures with refugee law. We record both dimensions without equating dissimilar claims.

On 13 March, Katerina Sakellaropoulou succeeded Prokopios Pavlopoulos and became the first female President of the Hellenic Republic. There is no regency or caretaker presidency. On 23 March, a general movement restriction was imposed, while schools, businesses, and public services suddenly changed their mode of operation. On 27 March, North Macedonia became a member of NATO, completing one of the direct international results of the Prespa Agreement.

The need for remote transactions accelerated digitalisation. Gov.gr consolidated services, paperless prescriptions and digital statutory declarations became everyday occurrences, and the electronic processing of documents reduced trips to counters. The change is real, but not universal: the elderly, people with low digital skills, or those without easy access to the internet still require support. Technology changes the state; it does not automatically eliminate bureaucracy or inequalities.

In the summer and autumn of 2020, tension shifted to the Eastern Mediterranean, with surveys by the Turkish ship "Oruç Reis," the mobilisation of naval forces, and European interventions. Greece and Turkey disagreed over maritime zones, airspace, and other issues. There were dangerous moments, but not war. The phrasing is important: military deployment and a diplomatic crisis are not presented as an armed conflict that did not happen.

In September 2020, the fire at the Moria Reception Centre left approximately 12,000 people without shelter. No deaths were recorded as a result of the fire, but the event symbolised the overcrowding and prolonged waiting times on the islands.

The 2021 census counted a permanent population of 10,482,487 residents, a decrease of 3.1% since 2011. The population aged 20 to 39 years decreased significantly, while those over 80 increased. The numbers show ageing, low births, and the footprint of migration, but a census alone does not predict the future. Housing, employment, family policy, and the integration of immigrants influence the continuity.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 changed the environment again. Greece participated in European sanctions and provided support to Ukraine. Energy and food prices rose, inflation eroded disposable income, and the state subsidised bills. Energy policy combined faster development of renewable sources, new interconnections, and a temporary return to more polluting supply security solutions. Transition and energy security do not always move without contradictions.

In April 2022, Greece repaid the remainder of its loans to the International Monetary Fund ahead of schedule. On 20 August, the European Commission's enhanced surveillance status ended. Early partial repayments of old bilateral loans followed. None of this meant that all bailout loans were repaid: large obligations to the European Stability Mechanism and the European Financial Stability Facility remain with long maturities.

The first phase of the pandemic had few deaths compared to many European countries. Subsequent waves, however, strained hospitals and caused tens of thousands of losses. As a safe timestamp, EODY had cumulatively recorded 33,426 deaths up to week 41, from 10 to 16 October 2022. We do not mechanically add later series of different monitoring. Stated COVID victims are not identical to excess mortality.

On 28 February 2023, a passenger train and a freight train collided at Tempe. The official death toll is 57. Investigations are examining human error, signalling systems, contracts, staffing, and the long-term operation of the railway. The accident triggered mass protests. Until our editorial cutoff, we do not transform accusations, expert findings, or political statements into a final judicial judgment, and we do not conflate different causes of death without a definitive finding.

In the elections of 21 May, New Democracy received 40.79% and 146 seats, without an absolute majority under the simple proportional representation system. On 25 May, the President of the Court of Audit, Ioannis Sarmas, was sworn in as caretaker Prime Minister. His government led to the new elections of 25 June. It is the only caretaker premiership of our period and does not constitute a new partisan government.

The second elections were held under a different system, of reinforced proportional representation and stepped seat bonuses. New Democracy received 40.56% and 158 seats. On 26 June, Kyriakos Mitsotakis returned to the premiership. A similar percentage of votes yielded a very different number of seats due to the electoral system and the number of parties that entered Parliament. This should not be incorrectly attributed to a sudden shift in the vote.

In the summer of 2023, wildfires in Rhodes and elsewhere led to large evacuations. In Evros and the region of Alexandroupoli, the largest wildfire that the European Union had recorded until then broke out. The Copernicus service reported 21 deaths on 26 August; many were migrants found in the forest. This number is a timestamped report from that specific source and is not merged with deaths from other fires or days.

In September, Storm Daniel caused extreme rainfall and catastrophic flooding in Thessaly. The European report recorded 17 deaths in Greece and approximately 700 square kilometres of flooded area. The consequences continue for homes, crops, livestock, infrastructure, and public health. We do not add to the human deaths animals, missing persons from another point in time, or victims of the same storm in Turkey and Bulgaria.

On 7 December 2023, Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signed the Athens Declaration on Friendly Relations and Good-Neighbourliness. A period of milder tension, political dialogue, a positive agenda, and confidence-building measures was inaugurated. The declaration is not a treaty on the delimitation of maritime zones and does not resolve legal disputes in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. We describe de-escalation, not a final settlement.

On 15 February 2024, Parliament voted for equality in civil marriage. Law 5089 was published the next day and allows civil marriage for same-sex persons, with concomitant regulations for family and social protection. It is a significant breakthrough in rights and the recognition of families. It is not, however, presented as a solution to every inequality in adoption, assisted reproduction, or daily social acceptance, fields where different rules and confrontations remain.

From 1 January 2025, Greece has been serving as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for the 2025–2026 two-year term. The position increases the country's diplomatic presence in wars and crises it cannot control alone. At the same time, European funding from the Recovery Fund supports investments, digital projects, and the green transition. The absorption of resources, however, is not a measure of social prosperity in itself; results, access, and resilience need to be checked.

On 13 March 2025, Konstantinos Tasoulas succeeded Katerina Sakellaropoulou in the Presidency of the Republic. He was elected by Parliament on 12 February. During the same period, the social and judicial handling of Tempe remains open, and the large gatherings of the second anniversary show a persistent demand for accountability. We record the mobilisations and the institutional procedures without prejudging criminal responsibilities before definitive judicial decisions.

Reaching the end of 2026, Kyriakos Mitsotakis remains Prime Minister and Konstantinos Tasoulas President of the Republic. The government resulted from the elections of June 2023; no other caretaker government intervened. The most recent annual estimates are still forecasts: the Bank of Greece on 23 June projected growth of 1.9% for 2026, while the European Commission on 21 May projected 1.8%. We do not present these as a final annual result.

The economic picture is mixed. Unemployment has fallen significantly in relation to the crisis, and the country has regained investment grade status from major agencies, while debt as a percentage of GDP is decreasing. However, high prices, the cost of housing, low wages for many workers, productivity, and uneven regional development remain pressing. The 2026 forecasts changed along with energy and geopolitical developments, so we keep the date and the institution for every number.

Demography constitutes perhaps the slowest crisis. The census recorded a population decrease, and Eurostat estimated a median age of 47.2 years on 1 January 2025, among the highest in Europe. The return of people who left, immigration to Greece, integration, gender equality, care for children and the elderly, and affordable housing are connected. There is no single simple "demographic solution" nor a number that summarises all families.

Climate adaptation, energy, and the digital transition condense the contradictions of the decade. More renewable sources and electronic services can reduce costs and emissions, but they require grids, storage, data protection, and fair access. Wildfires and floods show that civil protection is not judged only at the moment of evacuation: it is judged in spatial planning, maintenance, prevention, and the ability to recover.

Here ends the journey we began in 1800. In 226 years, we saw revolutions that were not a single movement, states that changed borders, kings, republics, dictatorships, wars, civil wars, refugees, growth, crises, and social struggles. We did not search for a permanent hero or a permanent culprit. We tried to distinguish the event from its memory, the evidence from the interpretation, and the precise number from honest uncertainty.

History does not end at the end of 2026. Only our research and narrative stop there. Whatever happens after belongs to subsequent, new documentation. Knowledge of the past does not give ready-made answers, but it helps us recognise continuity, rupture, and the cost of choices. And perhaps this is the most useful continuation: to listen, to check, and to remember without abandoning complexity.

Find all episodes at ProjectGreece.gr, along with references, additional material, explanations, sources, and bibliography.

All episodes of the series are available for free on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube Music.

ProjectGreece.

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